We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
|
|
|
Showing 121 to 125 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
