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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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Showing 126 to 130 news of total 6871 |
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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