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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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Showing 141 to 145 news of total 6871 |
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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