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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
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Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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