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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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