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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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