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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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