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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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