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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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