We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
|
|
|
Showing 1196 to 1200 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
