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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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