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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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