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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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Showing 106 to 110 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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