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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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