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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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