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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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Showing 1166 to 1170 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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