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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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