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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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