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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
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