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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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