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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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