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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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