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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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