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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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Showing 906 to 910 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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