We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
|
|
|
Showing 896 to 900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
|
| |
| |
|
