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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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