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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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