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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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