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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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