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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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