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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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Showing 836 to 840 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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