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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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