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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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