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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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