We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
|
|
|
Showing 751 to 755 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
