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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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