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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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