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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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