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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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