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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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