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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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