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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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