We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
|
|
|
Showing 1031 to 1035 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
