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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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Showing 1046 to 1050 news of total 6871 |
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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