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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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