We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
|
|
|
Showing 1021 to 1025 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
|
| |
| |
|
