We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
|
|
|
Showing 1001 to 1005 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
|
| |
| |
|
