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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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