We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
|
|
|
Showing 1011 to 1015 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
