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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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